Совет экспертов Исламской Республики Иран: социально-демографические и политические факторы рекрутирования (1983–2024)
Аннотация
В данной статье анализируются социально-демографические и политические факторы рекрутирования членов Совета экспертов Ирана в 1983–2024 годах. Совет экспертов представляет из себя коллегию выборщиков, формально контролирующую Верховного руководителя, однако де-факто не пользующуюся своими полномочиями. База данных состоит из 446 наблюдений, относимых к 216 персоналиям в течение пяти созывов Совета экспертов. В статье используется структурно-биографический метод анализа. Результаты исследования показывают, что иранское духовенство в Совете экспертов относительно устойчиво, однако на него влияют тренды, связанные с массовизацией высшего образования и динамикой политической борьбы между политическими фракциями. Если изначально абсолютное большинство было консерваторами, то к последним созывам выросла доля реформаторов, а также духовенства с двойной политической аффилиацией: они относятся и к консервативным, и к реформаторским политическим организациям. Также в С. высокая доля переизбирающихся: около половины, начиная со 2-го созыва, избирались как минимум дважды, начиная с 3-го — около трети переизбирались как минимум трижды. Большая часть членов С. происходила из семинарий Кума и Наджафа, меньшинство — из семинарии Мешхеда. Среди них также широко распространено светское образование, доля охвата которого достигает 18–20% в 5-м составе. Основные специальности, полученные в светских учебных заведениях, — это теология, право и философия. Более половины членов всех созывов выходцы из 9 провинций, что свидетельствует о значимом влиянии патримониализма на рекрутирование в Совет экспертов.Скачивания
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