Количественный анализ факторов террористической активности: систематический обзор
Аннотация
С начала XXI века значительно выросло количество эмпирических исследований, посвященных анализу факторов, влияющих на риски террористической активности. При этом оценки влияния отдельных факторов могут отличаться в разных исследованиях, из-за чего возникает потребность в обобщающей работе, в которой будут рассмотрены ключевые результаты. В данной статье представлен анализ результатов количественных исследований факторов, влияющих на террористическую активность (было проанализировано 75 работ за 2011–2022 годы). Наиболее широко исследованные детерминанты терроризма можно разделить на три группы: политические, социальные и экономические. Всего было выделено 53 фактора, статистическая значимость которых была выявлена как минимум в двух работах. Исследования факторов террористической дестабилизации последних десяти лет показали, что наибольшие риски террористической дестабилизации имеют страны с гибридным политическим режимом (анократией), в состоянии внутреннего или внешнего конфликта, со слабой центральной властью (например, «хрупкие» или «несостоявшиеся» государства), со средним уровнем социально-экономического развития (т. е. со средними уровнями подушевого ВВП, урбанизации и охвата населения формальным образованием), хотя в последние годы зона наибольшего риска террористической активности несколько сдвинулась в сторону социально-экономически наименее развитых стран. Кроме того, для этих государств характерны низкие темпы экономического роста и высокая инфляция, большие объемы иностранной финансовой поддержки, высокий уровень неравенства, достаточно многочисленное население, выраженная дискриминация меньшинств, а также высокие уровни репрессий и террористической активности в предшествующие годы.Скачивания
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