Hide
Раскрыть
РУС /  ENG

Andrey Korotayev 1, Patrick Sawyer 1, Maxim Gladyshev 1, Daniil Romanov 1, Alisa Shishkina 1
  • 1 National Research University Higher School of Economics, 20 Myasnitskaya Str., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation

Some Sociodemographic Factors of the Intensity of Anti-Government Demonstrations: Youth Bulges, Urbanization, and Protests

2021, vol. 20, No. 3, pp. 98–128 [issue contents]
Demographic changes associated with the transition from traditional to modern economies underlie many modern theories of protest formation. Both the level of urbanization and the “Youth Bulge” effect have proven to be particularly reliable indicators for predicting protest events. However, given that in the course of economic development these processes often occur simultaneously, it seems logical to put forward the hypothesis that the combined effect of urbanization growth and an increase in the number of young people will be a more relevant factor for predicting protests. Our study of cross-national time series from 1950 to 2016 shows that the combined effect of these two parameters is an extremely strong predictor of anti-government protests in a single country, even more so than traditional indicators such as democratization, per capita GDP, and the level of education.
Citation: Korotayev A., Sawyer P., Gladyshev M., Romanov D., Shishkina A. (2021) O nekotorykh sotsial'no-demograficheskikh faktorakh intensivnosti antipravitel'stvennykh demonstratsiy: dolya molodezhi v naselenii, urbanizatsiya i protesty [Some Sociodemographic Factors of the Intensity of Anti-Government Demonstrations: Youth Bulges, Urbanization, and Protests]. The Russian Sociological Review, vol. 20, no 3, pp. 98-128 (in Russian)
BiBTeX
RIS
The Russian Sociological Review
Office A-205
21/4 Staraya Basmannaya Ulitsa, Building 1
Deputy Editor: Marina Pugacheva
 
Rambler's Top100 rss