TY  - JOUR
TI  - Some Sociodemographic Factors of the Intensity of Anti-Government Demonstrations: Youth Bulges, Urbanization, and Protests
T2  - The Russian Sociological Review
IS  - The Russian Sociological Review
KW  - protests
KW  - urbanization
KW  - youth bulge
KW  - urban social movements
KW  - economic development
AB  - Demographic changes associated with the transition from traditional to modern economies underlie many modern theories of protest formation. Both the level of urbanization and the "Youth Bulge" effect have proven to be particularly reliable indicators for predicting protest events. However, given that in the course of economic development these processes often occur simultaneously, it seems logical to put forward the hypothesis that the combined effect of urbanization growth and an increase in the number of young people will be a more relevant factor for predicting protests. Our study of cross-national time series from 1950 to 2016 shows that the combined effect of these two parameters is an extremely strong predictor of anti-government protests in a single country, even more so than traditional indicators such as democratization, per capita GDP, and the level of education.
AU  - Andrey Korotayev
AU  - Patrick Sawyer
AU  - Maxim Gladyshev
AU  - Daniil Romanov
AU  - Alisa Shishkina
UR  - https://sociologica.hse.ru/en/2021-20-3/510751857.html
PY  - 2021
SP  - 98-128
VL  - 20